Bad American

Here are my latest gut feeling predictions for March 4. I think Clinton will win Ohio now based on her comprehensive personal campaigning in the state, her greater visibility on the street in Ohio (as opposed to TV) and my feeling that the nasty winter weather on Tuesday will hold down the Kiddie Korps voters that Obama needs to win Ohio.

There’s also a little story from Canada that refuses to die and may bite Obama in the ass (see bottom of post). If true, watch Obama’s support in Ohio erode further faster.

However, it does seem that Obama keeps getting stronger in the Longhorn State. Actually this is getting tougher to handicap because of so many variables that are getting thrown into the prognosticating cauldron.

So having said that here are my predictions:

Texas primary - Feb 13: Clinton, 52-48; Feb 20: 50-49 Obama; today: 51-49 Obama (Latino vote will not be able to offset Obama’s strengths in urban Texas but it may be closer than this)

Ohio primary - Feb. 13: 50-50 split; Feb. 20: 50-49 Obama; today: 51-49 Clinton (I still think Obama has a shot at eeking out a win here but the trends look better for Clinton now as does the weather.)

Vermont primary - Feb 13-20: Obama 60-40; today: Obama 58-42 (polls show Obama with a big lead in Vermont, I think Clinton has probably narrowed it somewhat but Obama should still win going away)

Rhode Island primary - Feb. 13: Obama 55-45; Feb. 20: Obama 58-42; today: Obama 53-47 (I really feel polls earlier in showing Clinton with a big lead here are not right. Weather and turnout in Providence will play a big role here. Clinton could very well win here but not by the 60-40 lead some polls seem to indicate).

I also have to wonder if Hillary Clinton’s latest television commercials - the one where the phone is ringing - will cut into some of Obama’s support among the so-called ‘national security moms.’ If Clinton takes out Obama on national security, we will have an election on who can be the biggest warmonger in Washington - a very bad thing indeed. If Obama starts talking tougher on defense, he’ll alienate his base support. He’s now on the hot seat and has to dance with the progressive peace crowd - as tenuous as that tango may indeed be.

Having said all this this does not translate into a knockout for Obama and if these results hold up and Clinton wins Ohio she will stay in and the campaign shifts eventually to Pennsylvania April 22. I strongly suspect there are people in Clinton’s inner circle who feel that only now Obama is really having to take the heat on a lot of these national security issues.

And then there’s this (not so) little matter:

From CTV (Canada)

Despite repeated requests, Barack Obama’s campaign is still neither verifying nor denying a CTV report that a senior member of the team made contact with the Canadian government — via the Chicago consulate general — regarding comments Obama made about NAFTA.

Allegations of double talk on the North American Free Trade Agreement from both the Obama and Clinton campaigns dominated the U.S. political landscape on Thursday.

On Wednesday, CTV reported that a senior member of Obama’s campaign called the Canadian government within the last month — saying that when Senator Obama talks about opting out of the free trade deal, the Canadian government shouldn’t worry. The operative said it was just campaign rhetoric not to be taken seriously.

The Obama campaign told CTV late Thursday night that no message was passed to the Canadian government that suggests that Obama does not mean what he says about opting out of NAFTA if it is not renegotiated.

However, the Obama camp did not respond to repeated questions from CTV on reports that a conversation on this matter was held between Obama’s senior economic adviser — Austan Goolsbee — and the Canadian Consulate General in Chicago.

If true, and CTV is sticking to their story, a lot of Obama’s support in Ohio could erode and, if he doesn’t score a knockout on Tuesday and this story grows, it will hurt him seriously in Pennsylvania among voters to whom trade matters matter.

So is that anti-NAFTA talk just garbage talk for rust belt rubes?

I’m really missing John Edwards about now.